Methods of intelligent modeling of processes with a variable observation interval and constructive ordering “with weight”
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34185/1562-9945-3-128-2020-12Keywords:
недетерміновані часові послідовності, нерівномірний інтервал, сепарабельна модель, нечітка квантильна модель, упорядкування векторів з «вагою»Abstract
The article explores topical issues regarding the modeling and analysis of non-deterministic processes, represented by fuzzy time sequences with irregular intervals between observations. The analysis of the publications showed the high possibilities and effectiveness of the application of the methods of fuzzy time sequences for solving such problems. The purpose of the research is to develop a new separable model and method of analysis and prediction of fuzzy time series with irregular intervals. We propose a model of these processes, which differs from the known method of forming models of sequences, both the magnitudes of the process indicators and the intervals between observations. In the proposed method, such models are formed separately and subsequently agreed upon. There was found that the feasibility of the proposed method depends significantly on the efficiency of fuzzy time series modeling algorithms. In order to implement separable models of fuzzy time series with irregular intervals, the fuzzy quantile method was improved.
The article proposes new substantive and formal formulations of tasks concerning the procedures of ordering the sequences of elements, which differ from the known ones in that they take into account the different complexity (weight) of individual operations. There were formed metrics for realization of procedures of ordering with «weight» and for comparison of states of formation processes, also there were constructed intellectual production algorithms for realization the tasks of ordering «with weight»
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