CHALLENGES IN THE EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF HIGH-TECH LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER MODERN STOCHASTIC ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34185/1991-7848.itmm.2026.01.042Keywords:
high-tech long-term investments, business project, discount rate, ordinary differential equations, Furrier series, net present value, profit index, Monte-Carlo testsAbstract
The accurate evaluation of investment projects in modern business environments remains a significant challenge. This is driven, on the one hand, by the increasing stochasticity of the economic environment and, on the other hand, by the growing complexity of business projects, which requires more accurate estimation, particularly for long-term operations. Consequently, key parameters of business analysis, such as the discount rate, market supply and demand, and sales volume, require more advanced modeling approaches. Therefore, there is a need for a new paradigm for investment evaluation. The proposed paradigm is based on representing key parameters as continuous functions with stochastic components, while the investment analysis process itself is formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations. The application of this approach enables a more comprehensive assessment of the robustness of investment projects through Monte Carlo simulations with respect to the stochastic properties of the economic environment.
References
Kabachenko D., Lapkhanov E. Development and justification of the system methodological approach to assessing the investment business project implementation efficiency under conditions of the external market environment factors impact. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. – 2023. – Vol. 3(123). – No. 3 – P. 6–21. – https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.279621
Lapkhanov E., Kabachenko D. Peculiarities of the net present value and profit index calculations using continuous functions and differential equations models. Traditional and innovative approaches in economics: theory, methodology, practice. – 2024. – P. 547–565. – https://doi.org/10.30525/978-9934-26-407-8-25
Jin T., Gong Z., Zhang B., Xiao S., Liu Y. Multi-stage research and development project appraisal under uncertain composite real options. Information Sciences. – 2025. – Vol. 716. – Art. 122252. – https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2025.122252
Kabachenko D. V. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the implementation of an investment business using a mathematical model of differential equations and continuous functions. Naukovi Perspektyvy – 2025. – Vol. 65. – No. 11. – P. 746–762. https://doi.org/10.52058/2708-7530-2025-11(65)-746-762 [in Ukrainian]
Pawlak M. Valuation of real options using Monte Carlo simulation. Procedia Computer Science. – 2024. – Vol. 246. – P. 3410–3419. – https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2024.09.216
Tveter E., Welde M., Odeck J. Accounting for uncertainties in cost-benefit analyses of road projects: A procedure illustrated by real-world projects. Transport Policy. – 2025. – Vol. 170. – P. 137–146. – https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.012
Vilani L., Zanin A., Lizot M., Trentin M. G., Afonso P., de Lima J. D. A framework for investment and risk assessment of agricultural projects. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. – 2024. – Vol. 17. – No. 9. – Art. 378. – https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090378
